We've heard it before time and time again, "The Saints have effectively killed both Bush and McAllister's fantasy value." "Which do you take Julius Jones or Marion Barber?" "Running back by committee is killing my team!" But, how much validity is there in that school of thought. On paper it sounds like a killer, but let's take a deeper look and see what we find.

The Top 10 Total Rush Attempts in 2006 were all put forth by guys who were lone running backs in their team's offensive schemes. The average number of rush attempts between those Top 10 are 335 or 21.1 Rushes Per Game. Let's look at some of the biggest names affected in 2006 by the RB By Committee plague's Rushes Per Game over the years:

• Duece McAllister: 2004 - 19.2, 2005 - 18.6, 2006 - 16.3
• Fred Taylor: 2004 - 18.6, 2005 - 17.6, 2006 - 15.4
• Julius Jones: 2004 - 24.6, 2005 - 19.8, 2006 - 16.7
• DeShaun Foster: 2004 - 14.8, 2005 - 13.7, 2006 - 16.2

With the exception of Julius Jones (Marion Barber has been splitting carries since 2005), these guys have only been part of committees since last season. Here's how the breakdown plays out:

2004: 19.3
2005: 17.4
2006: 16.2

So, since the committee came into play, we've seen our 4 big names drop about 3 rushes per game. That's not too bad, especially considering their average Yards Per Rush number all actually INCREASED from 2005 to 2006 from 4.0 to 4.4 (with the exception of DeShaun Foster who went from 4.3 YPR to 4.0 YPR). If all of those guys keep up the 4.4 Yards Per Rush pace for their average 16.2 Rushes Per Game, that would have them rushing for 1140 yards this season. Not a bad deal considering that Fred Taylor is the only one of the four who has rushed for over 1140 in the past 3 seasons.

The bottom line is, generally speaking, we're not going to see elite running backs fall into committees. I know I read an article recently that had the Saints interested in Larry Johnson, but seriously, why in the world would any team waste the kind of money Larry Johnson would demand when they have an elite running back already on the team? They wouldn't, that's bad business, and if they did...well, George Steinbrenner should have an opening at General Manager by season's end.

So, that being said, the guys who are falling prey to committees should have already had their expectations diminished. On top of that, it actually seems as though the committee is aiding their rush numbers by allowing them fresher legs when they come in.

Oh, you want to talk TD numbers?

• Duece McAllister: 2004 - 9, 2005 - 3, 2006 - 10
• Fred Taylor: 2004 - 2, 2005 - 3, 2006 - 5
• Julius Jones: 2004 - 7, 2005 - 5, 2006 - 4
• DeShaun Foster: 2004 - 2, 2005 - 2, 2006 - 3

Averages:

2004: 5
2005: 3.25
2006: 5.5

So, fear not, fellow Fantasy Football nutcases! The running back by committee scourge we're seeing become ever present in our beloved game is not the end of the fantasy world as we know it, only a new tool to use against the people who don't take the time to figure things out.

Just thought you should know.

Labels: deshaun foster, duece mcallister, fantasy football, football, fred taylor, julius jones, nfl, rb by committee, running back

Okay, last season of all of my ballyhooing and jabbering, I pulled out a 50% accurate, 18% push, and 32% dead wrong record. Pretty good, considering the subject matter. However, where I failed you all was in the Sleepers & Busters article last season, where I pulled a LenDale White sized belly flop picking only 4 of 10 correctly. Nasty.

Well, here I go again. This time I can feel it in my marrow, we're on the right path and if you stand firm behind me, we're going to take this one all the way to Chinatown! You ready? Me too, let do this...

Quarterbacks

Sleeper: Philip Rivers, QB - San Diego Chargers (Avg. Rank: 12.45, Hi: 6, Lo: 17)

With an average ranking of 12.45 and ranked as low as #17 (We were the one's who ranked him #6.) in our quest for player rankings, Philip Rivers is getting treated like the fantasy football equivalent of Pabst Blue Ribbon. In a draft pool of Heinekins, Sam Adams, and Red Stripes sometimes people forget that Pabst is also a tasty cheaper alternative. His 2006 Passer Rating was #6 of all QBs playing in more than 12 games last season. He threw 22 TDs last season (#8 overall) and only 9 picks (#3 among players with 12 or more games). He's got the 2nd best offensive line in football, one of the best receiving running backs in the league, THE best receiving tight end, and a bright young receiver corps. So, dig down in the ice and grab that Pabst later on when your buddies are smug about grabbing temporarily crutchless Donovan McNabb and enjoy the smooth cold flavor.

Buster: Vince Young, QB - Tennessee Titans (Avg. Rank: 8.64, Hi: 7, Lo: 12)

It's a hard lesson to learn, I know. But, take a moment to soak this in: "Running quarterbacks are not as good as advertised." Print that. Yeah, I know, rushing points come every 10-20 yards, while passing points come every 25-50 yards. So, if you have a QB who will rush for between 500-900 yards, hell yeah, right? Wrong. Okay, so he runs. But, where's he going? Most of the time not the end zone. Most QB rushes are midfield scrambles. Running backs are trained to run, quarterbacks are not. A chef that can mix drinks isn't better than a chef who can't because the one who can make drinks is going to do a half-ass job at both because he's busying himself trying to be the whole kitchen. Case in point, Vince Young had a 51.54% completion percentage last season and a 66.7 passer rating. Awful. Okay, so his drink mixing skills were pretty good with a 6.7 Yard Per Rush average, but the cooking at Cafe Vince sucks. And besides, who's he going to throw to? When Brandon Jones is your #1 receiver, you'd better run Vinny. Don't waste your pick.

Bold Statement: Alex Smith will be a Top 10 QB by season's end.

Running Backs

Sleeper: Jerrious Norwood, RB - Atlanta Falcons (Avg. Rank: 37.36. Hi: 31, Lo: 44)

I toiled and toiled over this pick because I had two other guys who would fit neatly into the slot (Brandon Jacobs (Avg. Rank: 24.36) and Marion Barber (Avg. Rank: 24.36)). Any of those 3 are prime sleeper material, as I believe they will all blow up in a major way. As a matter of fact for the past few months, Brandon Jacobs has been in my mind as my pick this year, but seeing Norwood ranked so low and seeing Jacobs at least getting SOME respect skewed my choice at the last minute. Norwood led all running backs with a 6.4 Yards Per Rush average and produced a healthy 8.5 Yards Per Reception average. He's got a great offensive line and a guy in front of him who should step aside at any moment. His only downfall is that Michael Vick doesn't particularly like to let anyone else touch the ball. But, if Vick finds himself bludgeoned with carrots by PETA, I'm sure Joey Harrington wouldn't mind letting ANYone else take the ball from him. I'm not saying he's first half draft material, but in those later rounds when you're drunkenly thinking about taking Wali Lundy or Kevan Barlow, you'd be better off with Norwood.

Buster: Travis Henry, RB - Denver Broncos (Avg. Rank: 13.09, Hi: 8, Lo: 20)

Guys...seriously. We need to talk. There's people out there who think Travis Henry is a Top 10 running back. People in positions to advise. This, my friends, is called lunacy. Yeah, okay, he was pretty good in 2002 and 2003 with Buffalo. Gotcha. But this is 5 years later! He's done nothing but suck up until last season when he became just barely above average. Now people see him in Denver and think he's the 13th best RB ahead of names like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James? I know Portis and James weren't great last season, but come on! It's possible to not be good under Mike Shannahan. Tatum Bell did it last season. Don't fall for the hype, please. You'll be sorry.

Bold Statement: Larry Johnson, not LaDanian Tomlinson, not Steven Jackson, will be the biggest point scorer in fantasy football this season.

Wide Receivers

Sleeper: Drew Bennett, WR - St. Louis Rams (Avg. Rank: 46.91, Hi: 34, Lo: 63)

This was a tough one as well, because as I dug through the ranks, I kept looking shallow. Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson (again). Too safe. Dig deeper, David! So, I did...and this is who I found. Last season, Bennett muddled through a long season of Tennessee's inadequacy, a rookie QB with a penchant for running, and a lackluster running game leading to defenses keying in on the WRs (I just noticed I could have easily called this article "Wail On The Titans"). Bennett finds himself in an environment where yards and TDs abound. Since Marc Bulger took over in the middle of 2002, the Rams have had at least 2 (TWO!) players with at least 800 yards receiving (2002: 1302 & 1075, 2003: 1696 & 981, 2004: 1372 & 1292, 2005: 1331 & 801, 2006: 1188, 1098, & 806). Normaly those two players are named Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, but Isaac Bruce is 35 years old. While Bruce is still slotted as the #2 WR, he's due for a dramatic decrease in looks with a player of Bennett's calibur now in the mix. Rated as he is, you should see him fall to some lower rounds. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger and grab him, he will be a large producer for what he is this season.

Buster: Larry Fitzgerald, WR - Arizona Cardinals (Avg. Rank: 7.27, Hi: 6, Lo: 9)

Now, I'm not saying that Larry Fitzgerald is a bad pick or a bad player. What I'm saying is that he's ranked way too high for the numbers he produces. He averages only 13.6 Yards Per Reception (2006: 13.7 was 48th overall against players with at least 12 games in 2006) and 8 TDs a season (2006: 6 was 7th overall against all WRs). With two other very good WRs in the mix, a RB that gets a decent amount of receptions, and a young QB with a subpar O-Line, I'm not saying he won't warrant a fairly high pick, he just stands a very good chance of disappointing this season.

Bold Statement: Marques Colston will hit the sophomore slump this season.

Tight Ends

Sleeper: Ben Watson, TE - New England Patriots (Avg. Rank: 9.36, Hi: 7, Lo: 13)

Dueling TEs sucks almost as bad as dueling RBs for a fantasy footballer. Almost as bad because TEs suck anyway, but they're a necessary evil. If you split their receptions in half, then it just gets nasty. Fortunately for Dr. Watson, his counterpart, Daniel Graham, jumped ship for Denver in the off season. This leaves Kyle Brady as his main competition, and Kyle Brady is a blocker, not a receiver. Now, with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker new on the scene in New England, this won't leave a WHOLE lot of receptions for Watson. But, he was already a very good tight end option and he just got better.

Buster: Jeremy Shockey, TE - New York Giants (Avg. Rank: 4.73, Hi: 3, Lo: 12)

With the 17th best Yard Per Reception average (11.4) over the past 3 seasons and 30th best in 2006 (9.4), Shockey's only saving grace is when he's near the end zone. Yes, he does have the 2nd best 3 Year Average in TD Receptions (6.7 per season), but TDs aren't everything. Once again, as with Larry Fitzgerald, I'm not saying stay away, I'm just saying the product you're purchasing isn't as good as advertised.

Bold Statement: Alge Crumpler will barely be a Top 10 TE by season's end.

Kickers

Sleeper: Rian Lindell, K - Buffalo Bills (Avg. Rank: 18.33, Hi: 16, Lo: 21)

There's two main things to look at when you look at a kicker: 1)Accuracy 2)The strength of his team's offense. Clearly, you want an accurate kicker. I don't even have to tell you that, but I did anyway. But, almost as importantly, you want a kicker with a team offense that's good enough to get in field goal range, but bad enough to flop when they get there. Lindell's got both. Over the past 3 seasons, Lindell's FGs Made %s are as follows: 85.7%, 82.9%, and 92.0% averaging out to 86.9%. There's only two regular kickers with higher accuracy percentages (Stover and Vinatieri). Plus, with J.P. Losman heading the offense, the 2nd worst offensive line, and an unproven (albeit highly touted) rookie as their starting running back, you have a mix that should get him close to his range. Oh, and did you know that Lindell's 50+ Yard FG Made % is 100% over the past 3 years? Yep, 5 for 5. You know who else has done that that's on the list right now? No one.

Buster: Robbie Gould, K - Chicago Bears (Avg. Rank: 4.11, Hi: 1, Lo: 7)

What did we learn last season about kickers who weren't very good one season and were very good the next? They tend to come back to earth. Right, Neil Rackers? In 2005, Robbie Gould hit only 77.8% of all FGs, then in 2006 he hit 88.9%. He's only played two seasons, how can I judge? Look at his stats, after a super hot start that inevitably earned him the ranking he currently owns, he hit the wall in Week 9. He averaged 11.8 points per game through the first 8 weeks, then, starting at Week 9, 6.7. After hitting 100% through the first 11 weeks, he only hit 67% after that. Plus, on top of all of that, his career longest FG is only 49 yards. He hasn't even attempted a 50+ yet.

Bold Statement: Mike Vanderjagt will return to the NFL this season and become a Top 10 kicker again.

Defenses

Sleeper: Green Bay Packers DST (Avg. Rank: 12.00. Hi: 4, Lo: 16)

Apparently not a lot of people noticed that the Packers turned in one of the finest statistical defensive displays of the season last year coming in 4th in sacks (46), 3rd in INTs (23), and 2nd in DEF TDs (5). Maybe that was because they also ranked 25th in Points Allowed (354) and the team just really sucked all season. But, the fact is that despite the Packers being Favre's team, they have generally been a solid defense year in and year out. This year should be any different. A.J. Hawk has aged a season and should excel, Charles Woodsen is always nasty, and Aaron Kampman (2nd most sacks in the NFL with 15.5) is back in full effect.

Buster: Miami Dolphins DST (Avg. Rank: 6.70, Hi: 5, Lo: 9)

Okay, yes they signed Joey Porter. The Dolphins will be one of the hardest teams in the league to run against between Porter, Zach Thomas, Jayson Taylor, and Keith Traylor. No question. But, last season they had 8 (EIGHT!) INTs, ranking them #31 overall and they did next to nothing to address that fact in the off season. While the rest of the stats are up to snuff, this glaring mistake tells me that they are leaving themselves open to a whole lot of airborne atatcks this season, which will leave Dolphins DST owners a little disappointed. That's why I cycle defenses like a madman, but that's another article.

Bold Statement: The San Diego Chargers will become the #1 defense this season.

Just thought you should know.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, predictions, projections, sleepers

Memorandum: NBC

Last Sunday was Week 13 in the NFL's regular season. For the past 13 Sunday evenings, we your viewing audience, has listened to John Madden and Al Michaels go completely silent for periods of up to one minute. Yeah, this is a nice break from hearing such Madden-isms as "Well, Al, these guys are just gonna have to get out there and play football." and "The thing I like about, so-and-so, is that when he throws the ball, he uses his whole arm." But, dammit, it's just unprofessional on your end!

Week 13! Has the DLP Hi-Definition Johnny-5 camera that hovers around the field depleted the microphone budget? I want answers NBC! There's no excuse for this to have gone on for 13 weeks straight.

Although, it has made me chuckle to think that maybe the silence is just the physical manifestation of Al Michael's happy place, since the silences tend to come toward the end of the game when Madden is punch drunk on cold cuts and cheese and just rambling out Madden-isms. But, that's just me... So, just fix it.

Labels: al michaels, john madden, nbc, nfl, sunday night football

I know, I know. This is no time to be pessimistic. During the very season that LaDanian Tomlinson is projecting better numbers than any running back in history, who am I to knock on the bathroom door and politely tell fantasy owners that they'd better hurry and get their rocks off humping his leg before it's too late.

Now, I'm not saying anything about THIS season. No way! Ride that donkey all the way to the championships, big fella! What I'm talking about is the future. Something struck me as I was driving home the other evening. I thought, "Every year there seems to be one running back who gives an unfair advantage to the team who owns him...and it never fails that someone thinks they're the luckiest person in the world to get that #1 pick the following year and wind up drafting Marshall Faulk in 2002, or Priest Holmes in 2004, or even Shaun Alexander in 2006." I thought, is there a way to somehow PREDICT the unpredictable fall off of these stellar running backs in time to save face for next seasons draft?

Of course...well, not a foolproof method, but it's certainly something to think about. Let's continue, shall we?

Now to stick to a Fantasy Football perspective and not a Hall of Fame contest, I'm going to stick strictly to Fantasy Points in this comparison. The fantasy points were derived from the universal stats and point values: 10 yards (rushing & receiving) = 1 point, TD = 6 points. We're just talking about the basics. Just the meat. If you're the type who gives points for rushing attempts, broken tackles, and crotches sniffed...well, get a life.

Let's start with the classics. The old greats from around the time when most (some) of us started playing this silly little game of ours:

Thurman Thomas lead the AFC in rushing in 1990, 1991, and 1993. Ironically enough, the year that he didn't win the rushing crown was the year of his greatest fantasy performance. On top of that irony is that in 1993, he won the AFC rushing crown on the cusp of his downward slide.

Peak Fantasy Points: 283.3
Seasons To Get To Peak: 5
Next Season Total: 206.2

Maybe a couple of you had heard of this guy back in the day. I thought twice about including this guy on the list due to his line not fitting in with the rest, but then in a fit of journalistic integrity I decided it would be irresponsible not to include one of the best running backs of the 90s. Maybe it was because Barry took his ball and went home when the Lions refused to trade him and he was able to retire on top of the game, but while everyone else's graph on this list resembles a mountain, Barry's resembles a rocky plateau. Maybe that speaks to Barry's ownership of the game, or maybe he just got out of the game before he pulled an Emmitt Smith.

Peak Fantasy Points: 319.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 9
Next Season Total: 202.0

The NFL's Career Rushing Yardage record holder, Emmitt Smith, was a monster to own in the early 90s. If he was on your team, no one could touch you. In 1995, he did the unthinkable when he hopped over the 350 Fantasy Points mark. However, the next year his fantasy points fell to 235.3 and he only topped that mark one more time (240.7 in 1998) over the course of 9 more seasons spent desperately trying to take Walter Payton's record.

Peak Fantasy Points: 364.8
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 235.3


Many of you are probably most familiar with Marshall Faulk, as he was many people's golden child in their virgin seasons. As part of the the seemingly unstoppable Rams, it seemed that Faulk was an unstoppable force by himself. He created fantasy league champions all over the world from '99 to '01. But, when trigger happy owners spent their #1 pick on him in 2002, jaws hit the floor and pants filled with poo. We watched the cliff fall out from under Mr. Faulk like Wyl E. Coyote in Looney Tunes, but Mr. Faulk forgot his tiny umbrella and he suddenly became a tiny dust cloud at the bottom of the fantasy canyon.

Peak Fantasy Points: 374.9
Seasons To Get To Peak: 7
Next Season Total: 334.7
NEXT Season Total: 203.0
Ah, Priest Holmes! What a great story. He just wanted somewhere to play. Baltimore couldn't seem to fit him in. He did well in 1998 cresting 1000 yards in his rookie season, but then sat back in a reserve role until Kansas City grabbed him up in 2001. He took that opportunity to say, "Eff-You Baltimore, I'm goin' off!" He put up numbers the likes of which have never been seen, and he called himself Tenacious D...excuse me... No one before him had put up two consecutive 350+ point seasons. But, we all know what happened next, and people were STILL drafting him in 2005 in hopes of catching just a glimpse of what he had been.

Peak Fantasy Points: 371.0
Seasons To Get To Peak: 6
Next Season Total: 193.9


Now we get to LT. Now, I'm an LT owner and I know what kind of benefits this man has provided for my team this season. If I'm down 35 going into the afternoon games on Sunday and Tomlinson hasn't played yet, I can still kick my feet up and rest easy that good ol' LT will run circles around whatever defense they throw at him. This weekend I started LT and Joseph Addai who combined for 74.96 points. That's enough to win games all by themselves, but I had seven other players on top of that. (Just wanted to brag again...)

Back to the topic at hand. Looking at the five players we've discussed prior to King Tomlinson, if you'll notice, they all seem to hit their peak fantasy value at around the 6th year (the average is 6.6, but you get the idea.) This just happens to be LT's 6th season in the NFL. While the totals for 2006 are just projections according to his statistics up to Week 12, he's not only about to beat the all-time fantasy points record, he's about to smash it by more than 50.

LaDanian reminds me of the story of Icarus. Long boring mythology short, Icarus built wax wings to prove to his father that he could touch the sun, the sun melted his wings, he plummeted back to Earth. Now, I'm not saying LT is pushing himself too hard or anything like that. But, you can look at the charts above and see historically that once a running back hits a peak, he not only never touches that number again, he continues to plummet right back to Earth.

Why do I think LT has hit his peak? You mean besides the fact that he's on the verge of scoring 441.1 points, when the highest I've run across is Faulk's 374.9? I guess the way he's running this season, I can't wholeheartedly say that it's his peak...but, you've got to consider it.

So, there you have it. Take it for what it is. One guy's opinion and attempt at predicting the unpredictable. But, I know that if I land the 1st pick in 2007, I will be wary of drafting LaDanian Tomlinson with my pick.

Just thought you should know...

Labels: fantasy football, football, LaDanian Tomlinson, nfl

So, here we are. Week 10 is coming to a close. Playoff positions are beginning to solidify. Fantasy managers are beginning to either lose hope or plan for the playoffs. But, most importantly, trade deadlines are looming over the league.

Besides the draft, the trade deadline is the next most important time when the great managers are separated from the good. Do you sit idly by and let the team that got you there continue to carry you, or do you take a gamble and fill a hole or upgrade a question mark? For the sake of the article, I'm gonna say, it's trade time.

There's a few rules of thumb we should go over in the art of trade making:

1. Never make a deal with a guy you're in direct competition with. It's not good business. You'd shoot yourself if it was your guy who knocked you out of playoff contention. You may get a good deal, but it's always a gamble. This is more of a painful thing to watch than a team killer.

2. Saying "I need an RB!" on the message board will not get the job done. When you post that message, you're basically saying, "I'm desperate! Send me the most ridiculous deal you could imagine." If you want a leg up, you have to take the initiative. You have to take the time to offer trades. No one is looking to give you LaDanian Tomlinson. They're looking to see if you're desperate enough to give up Donovan McNabb for Travis Henry. So, don't waste your time.

3. Getting one stud for two good players is a good deal. Offering up Phillip Rivers and Terry Glenn for Frank Gore when you're in a pinch for an RB looks appealing for the other team and works well for you, assuming Rivers is your #2 and you can fill the hole left by Glenn.

4. Multiplayer deals are the way to go. A lot of times you can disguise a lopsided deal by making a 3 for 3 trade. Asking for Larry Johnson and two scrubs in return for three solid players, suddenly makes it seem more bearable to lose LJ for the other guy. Just make sure you try and trade position for position, it will make it seem more fair, because you're automatically filling the holes you create.

5. Use your Instant Messenger. You offer a trade. Two days later, your deal gets rejected and reworked. A day later, you respond. Before you know it, the trade deadline has passed. Work out a time when you can meet up and talk things out on Yahoo Messenger or AIM. Don't leave the table until a deal is hammered out. More times than not, vigilance will work out in your benefit. Kind of the way a filibuster works, eventually the other guy will say, "I don't care anymore, I'll take the deal just to shut you up!"

6. Know your victim. It's easy to look at Willie Parker sitting on top of the steaming pile of dook that is the last place team and offer up a deal. I mean, you're doing him a favor offering him Jeremy Shockey for Parker, right? No, that deal would get vetoed by any league with any amount of dignity. Plus, the poor sap in last place knows that nothing outside of a miracle will save him, so nine times out of ten, he's not interested in your vulture impression. The top teams won't want to shake up their team either. No, the team you need to set your sights on is the teams JUST barely out of contention for the playoffs. They're desperate for a shot in the arm, they're ready to deal and they want it now. Stick your heart in the freezer and bleed them dry.

7. Be sure to check out the matchups. Sometimes when you get a deal offer, it's easy to just pull the trigger. But, don't forget to do your homework. Make sure you check out the matchups during the final four weeks of the season. You don't want to make the deal of the season just to find out your new stud receiver plays Baltimore, Jacksonville, and Chicago in the three weeks of the playoffs. It's easy to just jump, it'll keep you alive if you put on the parachute first.

8. Don't trade just to trade. One of the worst things you can do is to just make a trade because it's fun. It never fails that someone will offer you a deal, and it's not a great deal, but you make a reworked offer. Suddenly, you just made a deal you didn't need to make just because you got bit by the trade bug. So, put some ointment on it, stick your hands in your pockets, whatever... Just keep that itchy trigger finger away from your mouse.

The late season trade is an art. Take it from the guy who, every season, gets accused of rigging trades or some other underhanded maneuvering. You CAN get the player you want and need. You just have to study the art, hone your craft, and turn off your heart light.

Labels: fantasy football, football trades, nfl, trade, trade deadline

There’s a fine line between respect and rejection in the world of Fantasy Football. Sometimes those can’t miss players not only miss, they bring you down with them. Ahman Green, anyone? Sometimes a final round throw away pick makes you the talk of the league, Willie Parker style. Here’s a look into how to avoid the rest of the league laughing as you sheepishly drop your #1 overall pick onto the waiver wire in Week 5.

Quarterbacks:

Sleeper – Jake Plummer – DEN – Anyone remember Jon Kitna’s 2003 and 2004 seasons? What about Drew Brees circa 2004 and 2005? What’s the similarity here? Right, they were both mediocre to lousy QBs who, when faced with their team spending a Top 5 Draft Pick on their replacement, decided to step it up a few hundred notches. Guess what happened to Jake Plummer this season? The Broncos drafted lauded rookie Jay Cutler to learn the system. Plummer is due a new contract at the end of the season with SOMEone, and he might like to prove to them that he’s worth the money. All signs point to a big season from the most underrated QB in the NFL.

Buster – Marc Bulger – STL – You know I should say Aaron Brooks, but you would’ve had to, at one point, actually been good to be considered a bust. Why Marc Bulger? Well, with injuries piling up like chicken buckets outside of John Madden’s bus, Marc Bulger has at least a 4:1 shot of not missing a game or two, but I’d play the numbers and bet that he misses more than that. Plus, with an aging receiver corps and a decimated offensive line, what exactly makes you think he’s worth a high draft pick? Don’t do it.

Running Backs:

Sleeper – Lee Suggs – NYJ – This spot could have been held by Chester Taylor or Joseph Addai, but I think most of you know that Chester Taylor will do very well in Minnesota, and Jospeh Addai still isn’t the starter yet. So, I pick Lee Suggs because he probably wasn’t even on anyone’s radar until a couple of days ago when he was brought to New York. Lee Suggs should take over for ailing Curtis Martin when he is forced into retirement by injuries before the preseason is over. Let’s not forget that he only had 8 rushes last season, but let’s also not forget that he averaged 4.5 yards per carry the previous two seasons when he got 56 and 199 carries respectively. He’s young, he has the talent, and now he’s all but got a starting job with a decent team. I’m not saying Suggs is 1st Round material, but if he was there in the 5th Round, you’d better believe I’d take him. ***EDIT*** Ha ha! The RotoDestroyer Jinx! Only moments after posting this article, Lee Suggs failed his physical and voided the trade to New York. So, let's not call him a sleeper anymore, but there's still Chester Taylor and Joseph Addai to look at.

Buster – Edgerrin James – ARI – Everything is wrong for Edge this season. Now, I love Edgerrin. He’s a great player. But, let’s look at what happened. He went from the best offense in the NFL to one of the flakiest. He went from one of the best offensive lines to one of the three worst. His present offense is led by two of the best wide receivers in the league. Gonna be real hard to spread the ball around between Anquan, Fitzy, and Edge. His quarterback will either be an old man teetering on the brink of wasting away or an unproven Paris Hilton boy toy rookie. Plus, PLUS, he’s got his contract now, so there's no reason to go overboard. My prediction for Edge this season is he starts off slow, picks up steam toward midseason, then is injured when one of his doofus linemen let a linebacker through and he doesn’t play again this season as the Cardinals once again miss the playoffs.

Wide Receivers:

Sleeper – Andre Johnson – TEX – There’s several names who could go here: Michael Clayton, Javon Walker, even Chris Chambers. Michael Clayton is not as bad as he was last season. Javon Walker will be back with a vengeance under Shannahan’s rule. Chris Chambers is a sleeper in that, I think he will pull a Steve Smith and suddenly become a Top 3 receiver overnight. But, I still pick Andre Johnson because he was so good for two seasons, and when he crapped the bed last season I see now that he’s been written off down the line, ranked as low as #33. That’s crazy. The man’s a stud and with Eric Moulds coming to town for mentorship and to take the defensive pressure off of him, that adds up to sleeper material of the best kind.

Buster – Joey Galloway – TB – People still have this guy ranked as high as #11. Uh, guys, he’s 35 years old. That’s just a year younger than Brett Favre. Yeah, he was great last season, surprisingly so. But, honestly…#11? That’s just crazy. Let him go. Chris Simms is still finding his niche, and he’s surrounded by other younger talented receivers. When it comes your turn and you see Galloway staring you in the face, turn and run. There is no way he can live up to the hype.

Tight Ends:

Sleeper – Zach Hilton – NO – Now a sleeper at the tight end position is still just a tight end, so don’t get TOO excited and do something crazy. That being said, do you guys remember late last season after the Saints bye week when Zach Hilton started racking up pretty impressive games? Don’t worry, a LOT of people didn’t notice. But, I did. Do you guys remember who Brees’ last tight end was? Some guy named Gates. They had pretty good chemistry, that Gates fellas made a decent name for himself being thrown to by Brees. Hilton’s got the potential, he’s got the quarterback…but he IS still a Saint, and that means all guarantees are null and void. But, if I followed my strategy and still don’t have a TE in the 12th or 13th Round, I’d be more than happy to draft Zach Hilton. I expect big things out of him this season, although big things for a tight end is like owning the World’s Largest Weiner Dog.

Buster – Tony Gonzalez – KC – It pains me to put his name up here, but pickings are slim when you don’t expect much from the position as a whole. Why did I pick on Gonzo? Well, a few reasons. He’s been on a downward slide for the past three seasons, dropping about half a yard per reception each season. Trent Green is no spring chicken either, so there’s that. I’m not saying avoid Gonzo, I’m not saying he’s not worth having on your team. I’m just saying, you may think twice about drafting him as early as you did last season or the year before, because I just don’t see him producing like the Gonzo of old.

Kickers:

Sleeper – Mike Vanderjagt – DAL – Isn’t THAT a shame when the most accurate kicker in the history of the NFL is now a sleeper instead of just a sure thing. For one reason or another, he dropped a long way on a lot of people’s lists, falling as far as #7. That’s just crazy. Crazy? That’s just criminal. Look at the facts, he’s still the most accurate kicker in the league, he’s playing under a partial dome for half of his games, which means cross winds will be minimal to none. He’s playing for one of those offenses you love to see for a kicker, where they’re solid, but not quite good enough to score on every possession. They’ll drive down the field, but they’ll be putting away a lot of field goals when Julius Jones can’t break through the hole, or a lumbering Bledsoe hits the deck just shy of the yellow line.

Buster – Neil Rackers – ARI – Huh? Where did this guy pop into the #1 slot from? He’s ranked #1 all over town. Let’s look at his FG Accuracy over the past three seasons: 75.0%, 75.9%, 95.2%. OH, I get it now. The old Fluke Year Syndrome. People see on unstoppable season where he nails 40 of 42 and suddenly the proven studs take a back seat to Johnny Come Lately. Hell, Billy Cundiff out kicked Rackers in 2003 and 2004. In fact he was only better than 7 kickers in 2003, and only 5 in 2004. Now, I’m not saying that we should really even be worrying about kickers this much, because they’re really all the same. But, I am saying that Neil Rackers doesn’t belong in the #1 spot, and honestly he probably doesn’t even belong in the Top 5. So, don’t waste your pick on a fluke, just laugh into your beer when some moron drafts him in the 8th Round.

Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, sleepers

Here it is, Draft Day. The day that NFL fans all over the place look forward to as soon as the final play of the Super Bowl goes down. So, in order to spearhead RotoDestroyer’s journalistic integrity, I will be conducting a real time article over the course of the entire draft. This will include the drunken rambling that comes with the way we roll:

1. Houston Texans – Mario Williams DE/NC State - Nice, even though the Texans signed Mario last night, they still took five minutes to make the call. What were they doing back there? Stocking their cooler? And why is Michael Irvin so freakin’ pissed off about this pick? It’s a good thing no one takes Irvin seriously. He could make a lap dance unbearable…

2. New Orleans Saints – Reggie Bush RB/USC – Wow. I thought for sure they’d trade this pick. I think I could hear Duece McAllister calling his agent from my living room. And is it just me or does Reggie look a little less than excited about going to New Orleans? This is going to be huge, now I’m looking forward to going to some Saints games for another reason than just to make fun of the Saints fans.

3. Tennesee Titans – Vince Young QB/Texas – First off, YOU GO JETS FANS. Those guys are friggin’ nuts. They’ll boo anyone and freak out over anything. I can’t imagine Vince Young coming right into the league and producing. On paper he sounds good, but look at Michael Vick’s past two seasons. Exactly. Vince Young’s career and selection place is all based on one game. Good for Vince Young, bad for the Titans.

Side note – Who is more smug? Steve Young or Mel Kiper Jr.? Steve Young has the benefit of a wacky religion to be smug about. But, I think Mel Kiper Jr. edges him out with an overinflated feeling of self worth and hair that comes from a Ronco Products Hair Mold.

Side note – Wake up, Matt Leinart… *Hunhh HUH?! Leinart thirsty!

Side note – Can you imagine Michael Irvin’s blinged out team if HE was actually in charge? The Irvin Crunk… Good thing he’s just sitting on the sidelines and jabbering like an idiot rather than actually in charge.

4. New York Jets – D’Brickashaw Ferguson OT/Virginia – An excellent selection for the Jets. If there’s ANYTHING they need on their team besides a back up for Old Man Curtis is a bodyguard for Pennington and Ramsey. And if anyone in the NFL reminds me of Whitney Houston…I’m looking at Chad Pennington.

Side note – Who exactly is Under Armour advertising to? The average fat guy like myself sitting around with a beer and a sandwich watching the draft and fantasizing? If I buy some of their leotards will they quit flexing in my face? Click clack…shut up…

5. Green Bay Packers – A.J. Hawk LB/Ohio State – This has been the Packer’s choice since the college season ended. He’s an amazing linebacker with a straight up rock and roll name. They desperately needed help there and they got it. Good for the Pack.

Side note – How about the Matt “Superstar” Leinart ads with the sun shades and the leather jacket and the slicked hair and the crappy Nickelback crap. ESPN seems to be desperately trying to sell him to anyone. WHAT IN THE HELL IS VERNON DAVIS CRYING ABOUT?! Is he the next Cedric Benson? Are we about to hear another rambling boo-hoo sob story?

6. San Francisco 49ers – Vernon Davis TE/Maryland – The best tight end in years, bawling like a baby. Are the 49ers holding his grandmother hostage? Why the tears Vernon? You knew you were gonna be drafted. We all had a good idea it’d be the 49ers that would do it. So, they can’t be tears of surprise. Maybe his mother told him that she wouldn’t love him any more if he played for San Fran. Well, anyways, good for San Francisco. He’s the man, despite the tears.

7. Oakland Raiders – Michael Huff S/Texas - Well, their first mistake was signing Aaron Brooks. Their second mistake was not drafting someone to take his place when he continues to be one of the most frustratingly bad quarterbacks in the league today. But, they say Michael Huff is a good DB and the Raiders are such a terrible defense…you know, whatever…

Side note – Beer #2 is complete. My wife is solid gold, she just took the kids out so that I can drink, watch football nerdery, and write about it.

8. Buffalo Bills – Donte Whitner S/Ohio State – Okay, I’m not going pretend that I know anything about Donte Whitner. But, something I’ve noticed is that Michael Irvin hasn’t said ANYTHING since the first pick. Could I not be the only one who doesn’t know anything about Donte Whitner?

Side note – Tom Condon is a greasy sleezy looking used car salesman. HA! He got done with the interview, smile vanished and the vulture look replaced everything. “I hate talking to women…Condon KILL!”

9. Detroit Lions – Ernie Sims – LB/Florida State – This is a breath of fresh air for the Lions. They’ve been on the cusp of having a not quite great defense, but Sims is going to REALLY tie the room together. They haven’t had a great LB since Chris Claiborne. Should be good for them…

Side note – I’m officially beginng to get drunk.

10. Arizona Cardinals – Matt Leinart QB/USC – That was FAST! Man, seriously…WATCH OUT NFC West.. Arizona is the team to beat. Forget about Seattle. Leinart, Edge, Bolden, Fitzgerald? Man, seriously, Arizona fans are friggin’ melting down right now.

Side note – Click Clack
Side note – Denver trades with St. Louis for 15th and 68th overall

11. Denver Broncos – Jay Cutler QB/Vanderbilt – First off, Jay Cutler, while he may be “the best quarterback in the draft”, he looks like a douchebag. Get a haircut, you friggin’ fifth Beatle. I’m all for long hair, beards, dreads, whatever. Bowl cuts, however, are against the law. Good pick for Denver, though. Jake Plummer’s probably bummed after a decent season, but they gotta look forward to the future.

Side note – Steve Young must’ve heard my smug comment, because he’s desperately trying to pass ol’ Kiper with comments like “let me remind you that I went on record on ESPN about Cutler”. Yeah, we got it, you’re a genius….

Side note – Baltimore trades with Celevland for 13th overall and a 6th Rounder.

12. Baltimore Ravens – Haloti Ngata DT/Oregon – This guy is roughly the size of a cow. A poisonous cow with lasers that shoot from his horns and kill offensive linemen. Even though their defense SHOULD be top notch, Kyle Boller will keep the Ravens out of contention for the year. The Ravens will now officially be impossible to run against though.

Side note – Beer #3 VANQUISHED!
Side note – Ouch…the film they just showed of Ngata was pretty sad. I retract my laser beams in the horns statement. But, he’s still a cow. HA HA HA! The Haloti interview was fantastic. “Haloti, what can you say about coaches saying you take plays off?” “Well, I’m just blessed..” **WOOOOOOOOOO!!!** “…this is my team…” **WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!**
Side note – Suzie Colber, I wanna kiss you…

13. Cleveland Browns – Kamerion Wimbley DE/Florida State – Solid player, rarely hurt despite a brief injury stint. Frankly the Browns’ defensive line sucks. So, he ought to be possibly the best pick these guys have made since before they left for Baltimore.

14. Philadelphia Eagles – Brodrick Bunkley DT/Florida State – Seriously, holy s**t. Bench pressing 225 pounds 44 times? This guy is going to kill people. Wow. That guys arms look like pythons that ate six pumpkins. Good call, Philly. I still hate you, but good call all the same.

Side note – Beer #4 out the door!

15. St. Louis Rams – Tye Hill CB/Clemson – A five foot, nine inch corner back? Good luck with all THAT, St. Louis. Yeah, I know about the Senior Bowl, I live in Mobile. But, you can’t be fooled by one game. Sure Spud Webb was fun to watch, but that didn’t make him a perennial threat. Tye Hill = wasted pick.

Side note – Man, seriously, two things are about to make me go Elvis on my television screen this afternoon. Click clack and these pimp superstar promos for these college athletes. Jay Cutler as a cowboy pimp? Reggie Bush looking like a bigger player than Andre 3000 from Outkast? Matt Leinart looking like Snake from Escape From LA? Lame.

16. Miami Dolphins – Jason Allen CB/Tennesee – One of their major holes has been filled. Plus, his mother was freaking out in a world class way. He didn’t seem to pumped about it, but I think his momma is excited about meeting Jason Taylor (he’s so dreamy!) I think this guy is a top notch defensive back, but his mother’s got a better vertical leap.

17. Minnesota Vikings – Chad Greenway LB/Iowa – Sorry, I’ve never even heard anything about this guy. But, I can tell you that I need to pee.

18. Dallas Cowboys – Bobby Carpenter LB/Ohio State – Should be a tough defensive addition for the Cowboys, but I think they probably should’ve looked to an offensive tackle, considering their left tackle has never started a game. But, who am I to question the Big Tuna?

Side note – Beer #5 down the hatch.

19. San Diego Chargers – Antonio Cromartie CB/Florida State – The fourth Florida State defensive player taken in the first round is the craziest. He didn’t play the at all last season with a knee injury. The Chargers already have some pretty good DBs in Jammer and Jue. If there had’ve been a wide receiver worth a crap, they could’ve SURE used some of that. But, maybe Chad Jackson could’ve still been the better pick.

Side note – I’m getting pretty drunk now. Congratulations for me. I have to wonder if Cromartie’s family is “experiencing financial difficulties because of the pimp suit he’s wearing to the draft…
Side note – I saw a homeless guy walking down the street wearing a fez today. That has nothing to do with football, but I just wanted to mention it.

20. Kansas City Chiefs - Tamba Hali DE/Penn State – This guy kills. Watch the film on him. Seriously. He’s a quarterback exterminator. It may not translate all the way to the NFL, but this guy is a great pick.

Side note – Watching the Tamba Hali story after the pick. Wow, this guy has a hard life story. Jesus, he was this close to becoming a soldier in the Liberian Army and fighting in the civil war over there. And he’s playing so that his momma can come to America? Forget it, I feel bad for every QB to come into contact with this guy. Consider yourself dead.

21. New England Patriots – Lawrence Maroney – Wait… What? What about DeAngelo Williams? What about LenDale White? I don’t feel like I should be second guessing a football genius like Bill Belichick, but, Really? I don’t like it.

22. San Francisco 49ers – Manny Lawson DE/NC State – Chalk up a good draft to the 49ers. But, I feel like these guys won’t have a chance to compete for at least three years. They’ll be in the game, but their team is terrible. No offense at all. No defense at all. They’re making strides in the right direction, but you can only do so much in the the time between seasons.

Side note – Oh man, I’d love it if the Bucs could get Winston Justice. Solicitation of prostitution? Brandishing a FAKE firearm? So…what… It’s better than Michael Pittman’s love of playing bumper Humvees with his wife and infant child. I’m sold…pull the trigger.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Davin Joseph G/Oklahoma – WHAT?! Boooooo… I don’t like it. I don’t want to talk about it.

24. Cincinatti Bengals – Johnathan Joseph CB/South Carolina – With Deltha O’Neil as their best defensiveve back, the Bengals could have chosen anything anywhere in the defensive spectrum and still made a good enough choice.

Side note – Beer number something. Six maybe? Drunkedness is ensuing. I just checked, it’s six.
Side note – Pittsburgh trades with New York

25. Pittsburgh Steelers – Santonio Holmes WR/Ohio State – Great great great choice of picks. He’s interchangeable as the best WR in the draft with Chad Jackson. Hines Ward now has a new counterpart to play with once Cedrick Wilson falls off the map like he did in San Fran. Great pick, Pittsburgh.

Side note – Buffalo trades with Chicago

26. Buffalo Bills – John McCargo DT/NC State – Uh… Buffalo? Are you guys letting the chick from Major League draft for you? I know it’s not a large market team, and Los Angeles is chomping at the bit. But, come on, this guy is a late second, early third rounder. Buffalo has lost their minds.

27. Carolina Panthers – DeAngelo Williams RB/Memphis – This is the best pick since the top 5. Fantastic fit with the team. Fills a void that Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster have left behind with old age and injuries. Fantastic pick. I can’t praise them enough for grabbing him when they did.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars – Marcedes Lewis TE/UCLA – This is a huge upgrade from Kyle Brady. Great choice from what was left. Now Byron Leftwich can have another target whose name isn’t Jimmy Smith. Great choice.

Side note – One more beer before the end of the first round.

29. New York Jets – Nick Mangold C/Ohio State – Great choice for the Jets who lost Kevin Mawae to free agency. The best part of that pick? Either the Jets fans nearly hanging from the rafters and humping each other or that Mangold’s mom leapt on top of him and blocked him from camera’s view for nearly the entire shot.

30. Indianapolis Colts – Joseph Addai RB/LSU – Dominic Rhodes just threw his remote control across the room. This guy’s a stud for sure. A 4.4 40? Forget about it. We’ll see Rhodes for a few games, but that’ll probably do it.

Side note – I love the McDonald’s commercial where the hot chick is walking by and all the dudes are eating McDonalds and she walks by and they see her kid and they all give a “Phew! Dodged THAT bullet!” look knowing that they don’t want any of that noise. Because EVERYONE knows avoid chicks with babies at all cost, and McDonald’s is all like, “WORD!”
Side note – I love any athlete who uses the third person. It’s like spotting a mullet. Every time I hear LenDale White say “LenDale White” it makes me smile like I just spotted a feathered mullet with a rat tail.

31. Seattle Seahawks – Kelly Jennings CB/Miami – Unnecessary pick. Their defensive backs are fine. But with all the picking of the defensive backs going on, who can blame them? I’m not happy with the pick, but I don’t really care either, because the Seahawks are possibly one of the most boring teams in the NFL.

32. New York Giants – Mathias Kiwanuka – DE/Boston College – Pretty good pick there. A guy who can play on the other side of Strahan and learn from him as he goes along. His grandfather was the president of the Uganda. He wears a tattoo of the Ugandan Presidential Seal to commemorate the fact that his grandfather was tortured and killed during his presidency. Wow. What’s Strahan’s story again? Oh, right, not nearly as interesting, just something about gapped teeth and Favre fainting at the sight of him to give him a record. Right. You go, Kiwanuka!

There’s your first round. Paul Tagliabue is gone. I’m pretty drunk, but I’ve tried to maintain my journalistic integrity (look I can still spell it! That you Microsoft spell check!) and maintain a different look at the draft. Good day to you fools, I’m going to light the grill and get the margarita machine purring and ready for the rest of the party.

Labels: football draft, jospeh addai, nfl, nfl draft, reggie bush