Well, here I go again. This time I can feel it in my marrow, we're on the right path and if you stand firm behind me, we're going to take this one all the way to Chinatown! You ready? Me too, let do this...
Quarterbacks
Sleeper: Philip Rivers, QB - San Diego Chargers (Avg. Rank: 12.45, Hi: 6, Lo: 17)
With an average ranking of 12.45 and ranked as low as #17 (We were the one's who ranked him #6.) in our quest for player rankings, Philip Rivers is getting treated like the fantasy football equivalent of Pabst Blue Ribbon. In a draft pool of Heinekins, Sam Adams, and Red Stripes sometimes people forget that Pabst is also a tasty cheaper alternative. His 2006 Passer Rating was #6 of all QBs playing in more than 12 games last season. He threw 22 TDs last season (#8 overall) and only 9 picks (#3 among players with 12 or more games). He's got the 2nd best offensive line in football, one of the best receiving running backs in the league, THE best receiving tight end, and a bright young receiver corps. So, dig down in the ice and grab that Pabst later on when your buddies are smug about grabbing temporarily crutchless Donovan McNabb and enjoy the smooth cold flavor.
Buster: Vince Young, QB - Tennessee Titans (Avg. Rank: 8.64, Hi: 7, Lo: 12)
It's a hard lesson to learn, I know. But, take a moment to soak this in: "Running quarterbacks are not as good as advertised." Print that. Yeah, I know, rushing points come every 10-20 yards, while passing points come every 25-50 yards. So, if you have a QB who will rush for between 500-900 yards, hell yeah, right? Wrong. Okay, so he runs. But, where's he going? Most of the time not the end zone. Most QB rushes are midfield scrambles. Running backs are trained to run, quarterbacks are not. A chef that can mix drinks isn't better than a chef who can't because the one who can make drinks is going to do a half-ass job at both because he's busying himself trying to be the whole kitchen. Case in point, Vince Young had a 51.54% completion percentage last season and a 66.7 passer rating. Awful. Okay, so his drink mixing skills were pretty good with a 6.7 Yard Per Rush average, but the cooking at Cafe Vince sucks. And besides, who's he going to throw to? When Brandon Jones is your #1 receiver, you'd better run Vinny. Don't waste your pick.
Bold Statement: Alex Smith will be a Top 10 QB by season's end.
Running Backs
Sleeper: Jerrious Norwood, RB - Atlanta Falcons (Avg. Rank: 37.36. Hi: 31, Lo: 44)
I toiled and toiled over this pick because I had two other guys who would fit neatly into the slot (Brandon Jacobs (Avg. Rank: 24.36) and Marion Barber (Avg. Rank: 24.36)). Any of those 3 are prime sleeper material, as I believe they will all blow up in a major way. As a matter of fact for the past few months, Brandon Jacobs has been in my mind as my pick this year, but seeing Norwood ranked so low and seeing Jacobs at least getting SOME respect skewed my choice at the last minute. Norwood led all running backs with a 6.4 Yards Per Rush average and produced a healthy 8.5 Yards Per Reception average. He's got a great offensive line and a guy in front of him who should step aside at any moment. His only downfall is that Michael Vick doesn't particularly like to let anyone else touch the ball. But, if Vick finds himself bludgeoned with carrots by PETA, I'm sure Joey Harrington wouldn't mind letting ANYone else take the ball from him. I'm not saying he's first half draft material, but in those later rounds when you're drunkenly thinking about taking Wali Lundy or Kevan Barlow, you'd be better off with Norwood.
Buster: Travis Henry, RB - Denver Broncos (Avg. Rank: 13.09, Hi: 8, Lo: 20)
Guys...seriously. We need to talk. There's people out there who think Travis Henry is a Top 10 running back. People in positions to advise. This, my friends, is called lunacy. Yeah, okay, he was pretty good in 2002 and 2003 with Buffalo. Gotcha. But this is 5 years later! He's done nothing but suck up until last season when he became just barely above average. Now people see him in Denver and think he's the 13th best RB ahead of names like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James? I know Portis and James weren't great last season, but come on! It's possible to not be good under Mike Shannahan. Tatum Bell did it last season. Don't fall for the hype, please. You'll be sorry.
Bold Statement: Larry Johnson, not LaDanian Tomlinson, not Steven Jackson, will be the biggest point scorer in fantasy football this season.
Wide Receivers
Sleeper: Drew Bennett, WR - St. Louis Rams (Avg. Rank: 46.91, Hi: 34, Lo: 63)
This was a tough one as well, because as I dug through the ranks, I kept looking shallow. Randy Moss, Terry Glenn, Andre Johnson (again). Too safe. Dig deeper, David! So, I did...and this is who I found. Last season, Bennett muddled through a long season of Tennessee's inadequacy, a rookie QB with a penchant for running, and a lackluster running game leading to defenses keying in on the WRs (I just noticed I could have easily called this article "Wail On The Titans"). Bennett finds himself in an environment where yards and TDs abound. Since Marc Bulger took over in the middle of 2002, the Rams have had at least 2 (TWO!) players with at least 800 yards receiving (2002: 1302 & 1075, 2003: 1696 & 981, 2004: 1372 & 1292, 2005: 1331 & 801, 2006: 1188, 1098, & 806). Normaly those two players are named Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, but Isaac Bruce is 35 years old. While Bruce is still slotted as the #2 WR, he's due for a dramatic decrease in looks with a player of Bennett's calibur now in the mix. Rated as he is, you should see him fall to some lower rounds. Don't be afraid to pull the trigger and grab him, he will be a large producer for what he is this season.
Buster: Larry Fitzgerald, WR - Arizona Cardinals (Avg. Rank: 7.27, Hi: 6, Lo: 9)
Now, I'm not saying that Larry Fitzgerald is a bad pick or a bad player. What I'm saying is that he's ranked way too high for the numbers he produces. He averages only 13.6 Yards Per Reception (2006: 13.7 was 48th overall against players with at least 12 games in 2006) and 8 TDs a season (2006: 6 was 7th overall against all WRs). With two other very good WRs in the mix, a RB that gets a decent amount of receptions, and a young QB with a subpar O-Line, I'm not saying he won't warrant a fairly high pick, he just stands a very good chance of disappointing this season.
Bold Statement: Marques Colston will hit the sophomore slump this season.
Tight Ends
Sleeper: Ben Watson, TE - New England Patriots (Avg. Rank: 9.36, Hi: 7, Lo: 13)
Dueling TEs sucks almost as bad as dueling RBs for a fantasy footballer. Almost as bad because TEs suck anyway, but they're a necessary evil. If you split their receptions in half, then it just gets nasty. Fortunately for Dr. Watson, his counterpart, Daniel Graham, jumped ship for Denver in the off season. This leaves Kyle Brady as his main competition, and Kyle Brady is a blocker, not a receiver. Now, with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker new on the scene in New England, this won't leave a WHOLE lot of receptions for Watson. But, he was already a very good tight end option and he just got better.
Buster: Jeremy Shockey, TE - New York Giants (Avg. Rank: 4.73, Hi: 3, Lo: 12)
With the 17th best Yard Per Reception average (11.4) over the past 3 seasons and 30th best in 2006 (9.4), Shockey's only saving grace is when he's near the end zone. Yes, he does have the 2nd best 3 Year Average in TD Receptions (6.7 per season), but TDs aren't everything. Once again, as with Larry Fitzgerald, I'm not saying stay away, I'm just saying the product you're purchasing isn't as good as advertised.
Bold Statement: Alge Crumpler will barely be a Top 10 TE by season's end.
Kickers
Sleeper: Rian Lindell, K - Buffalo Bills (Avg. Rank: 18.33, Hi: 16, Lo: 21)
There's two main things to look at when you look at a kicker: 1)Accuracy 2)The strength of his team's offense. Clearly, you want an accurate kicker. I don't even have to tell you that, but I did anyway. But, almost as importantly, you want a kicker with a team offense that's good enough to get in field goal range, but bad enough to flop when they get there. Lindell's got both. Over the past 3 seasons, Lindell's FGs Made %s are as follows: 85.7%, 82.9%, and 92.0% averaging out to 86.9%. There's only two regular kickers with higher accuracy percentages (Stover and Vinatieri). Plus, with J.P. Losman heading the offense, the 2nd worst offensive line, and an unproven (albeit highly touted) rookie as their starting running back, you have a mix that should get him close to his range. Oh, and did you know that Lindell's 50+ Yard FG Made % is 100% over the past 3 years? Yep, 5 for 5. You know who else has done that that's on the list right now? No one.
Buster: Robbie Gould, K - Chicago Bears (Avg. Rank: 4.11, Hi: 1, Lo: 7)
What did we learn last season about kickers who weren't very good one season and were very good the next? They tend to come back to earth. Right, Neil Rackers? In 2005, Robbie Gould hit only 77.8% of all FGs, then in 2006 he hit 88.9%. He's only played two seasons, how can I judge? Look at his stats, after a super hot start that inevitably earned him the ranking he currently owns, he hit the wall in Week 9. He averaged 11.8 points per game through the first 8 weeks, then, starting at Week 9, 6.7. After hitting 100% through the first 11 weeks, he only hit 67% after that. Plus, on top of all of that, his career longest FG is only 49 yards. He hasn't even attempted a 50+ yet.
Bold Statement: Mike Vanderjagt will return to the NFL this season and become a Top 10 kicker again.
Defenses
Sleeper: Green Bay Packers DST (Avg. Rank: 12.00. Hi: 4, Lo: 16)
Apparently not a lot of people noticed that the Packers turned in one of the finest statistical defensive displays of the season last year coming in 4th in sacks (46), 3rd in INTs (23), and 2nd in DEF TDs (5). Maybe that was because they also ranked 25th in Points Allowed (354) and the team just really sucked all season. But, the fact is that despite the Packers being Favre's team, they have generally been a solid defense year in and year out. This year should be any different. A.J. Hawk has aged a season and should excel, Charles Woodsen is always nasty, and Aaron Kampman (2nd most sacks in the NFL with 15.5) is back in full effect.
Buster: Miami Dolphins DST (Avg. Rank: 6.70, Hi: 5, Lo: 9)
Okay, yes they signed Joey Porter. The Dolphins will be one of the hardest teams in the league to run against between Porter, Zach Thomas, Jayson Taylor, and Keith Traylor. No question. But, last season they had 8 (EIGHT!) INTs, ranking them #31 overall and they did next to nothing to address that fact in the off season. While the rest of the stats are up to snuff, this glaring mistake tells me that they are leaving themselves open to a whole lot of airborne atatcks this season, which will leave Dolphins DST owners a little disappointed. That's why I cycle defenses like a madman, but that's another article.
Bold Statement: The San Diego Chargers will become the #1 defense this season.
Just thought you should know.
Labels: busts, fantasy draft, fantasy football, nfl, predictions, projections, sleepers
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